In this episode, we have back on the show Hunter Jay, CEO Ripe Robotics, our co-host on Ep 1. We synthesise everything we've heard on AGI timelines from experts in Ep 1-5, take in more data points, and use this to give our own forecasts for AGI, ASI (i.e. superintelligence), and "intelligence explosion" (i.e. singularity). Importantly, we have different takes on when AGI will likely arrive, leading to exciting debates on AGI bottlenecks, hardware requirements, the need for sequential reinforcement learning, and much else.
Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content:
== Show links ==
Soroush & Hunter's AGI predictions (as a table): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_T0gsWTFBTCWIKuF07tmmWGBEPrfhRtwFJ7lfwo69eI/edit#gid=0
-- About Hunter Jay --
- Bio: Hunter is the CEO & founder of fruit-picking robotics company Ripe Robotics. He designed & built Mk1 to Mk4 robots himself and led as CEO after that. He's been deeply engaged with AGI safety & alignment for many years.
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hunterjay
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/HunterJayPerson
- Ripe Robotics: https://riperobotics.com/
-- Further resources --
- Ari Allyn-Feuer and Ted Sanders report on AGI timelines - https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2306/2306.02519.pdf
- Epoch AI trends research - https://epochai.org/trends
- Extropians forecasts: https://maximumprogress.substack.com/p/grading-extropian-predictions
- FF algorithm by Geoffrey Hinton: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.13345
- Learning motions within an hour: https://is.mpg.de/news/robot-dog-learns-to-walk-in-one-hour
Recorded June 18, 2023